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China eluded by full recovery

China eluded by full recovery

Write: Mordred [2011-05-20]
The mainland economy still has some way to go before full recovery settles in, economic indicators for last month show, with domestic consumption seen as the main driver for continuous and robust growth.

However, tightening measures are not imminent as deflation persists, the bag of mixed data affirmed.

Industrial production and fixed asset investment growth in July surprised the market the most as both slowed from the previous month, coming in on the lower end of market expectations.

Industrial output grew 10.8 percent, compared with 10.7 percent in June and 7 percent in the first half. The market estimate was for 12 percent year-on-year growth.

Urban fixed asset investment rose 29.7 percent, down from 36.2 percent in the first half.

Money supply and new loans growth also caught economists off-guard as both slowed at a greater pace than expected.

New loans - the most worrying aspect - slowed to just 355.9 billion yuan (HK$403.56 billion) last month, significantly less than the 500 billion yuan forecast or June's 1.35 trillion yuan.

It also was the lowest level since the government stimulus package was put in place in November.

Money supply grew 29 percent from a year ago. Goldman Sachs economist Yu Song viewed the monetary data as welcoming news given that the measures taken by the authorities have had an impact, helping banks to avoid possible problems caused by a surge in lending.

Merrill Lynch China economist Lu Ting said the data was not "as spectacular as many have thought," but recovery is on track.

Retail sales rose 15.2 percent from June's 15 percent, due to robust consumption and a low comparison base dented by negative consumer price inflation and a high base effect from last year's Olympic Games.

Exports fell 23 percent and imports dropped 14.9 percent in July from a year earlier, narrowing the trade surplus to US$10.6 billion (HK$82.68 billion).

As for inflation, consumer prices in July fell 1.8 percent, the largest drop in six consecutive months, while producer prices dropped 8.2 percent, in line with expectations.