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Trade surplus dips, taking heat off yuan

Trade surplus dips, taking heat off yuan

Write: Ciara [2011-05-20]
The nation's trade surplus narrowed in 2010 for the second straight year, giving China grounds to rebuff US pressure for faster currency appreciation ahead of President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington next week.
The government will point to the latest numbers as evidence that it is making steady progress in rebalancing its economy toward domestic consumption, cutting reliance on exports and giving the world a lift through surging demand for imports.
US lawmakers may find little comfort in the data showing that apart from some heavy machinery and agricultural commodities, the US provides few of the goods fueling China's import growth.
The mismatch meant the politically sensitive trade gap between the world's two biggest economies widened by 26 percent in 2010 to $181 billion, providing fodder for critics of Beijing's tightly-controlled currency regime.
The overall trade data from December alone was consistent with the pattern since the outbreak of the global financial crisis more than two years ago. With China growing much faster than the rest of the world, imports outshone exports.
"Imports are much stronger than we have expected, indicating that the domestic investment and internal demand are mainly pushing up domestic consumption," said Wang Han, an economist at advisory firm CEBM Group Ltd, which is based in Shanghai.
China's December exports rose 17.9 percent from a year earlier and imports increased by 25.6 percent, the customs agency said Monday.
That left the country with a trade surplus in December of $13.1 billion, well below analysts' expectations of $20 billion and the lowest in eight months.
A smaller trade surplus means that less money is flowing into China, making it less urgent for the central bank to mop up the excess cash in the economy that has pushed prices higher.
China's full-year trade surplus was 38 percent lower than its pre-crisis peak of nearly $300 billion in 2008.
"This could reduce the pressure for yuan appreciation and also remove some pressure for the central bank to imminently launch aggressive tightening," said Wang Hu, an economist with Guotai Junan Securities.
Along with quickening the pace of yuan gains, the government raised interest rates twice and banks' required reserves six times last year to rein in inflation that reached a 28-month high in November of 5.1 percent. The latest trade data was not a major factor for international markets, which were more focused on euro-area debt concerns.