——Brief Analysis on Prosperity Index of March. 2009
As Chart 1 shows, the general prosperity index of March.2009 closed at 1074.29 points, up 10.10% from last issue in a rebound trend. In it, the general prosperity index on raw materials closed at 763.70 points, down 1.04% from last issue; grey cloths closed at 1348.26 points, up 8.51%, rising apparently from last issue; apparel fabrics closed at 1348.26 points, up 10.25%, climbing up apparently compared with last issue; home textile closed at 1287.30 points, up 18.53% in an obvious uptrend; fashion accessories closed at 1331.75 points, up 18.97%, rebounding sharply from last issue.
1. The enterprise production prosperity index of March declined, the production confidence index climbed up slightly. In March, the enterprise production prosperity index closed at 1323.25 points, down 2.51%% from last month; the enterprise production confidence index closed at 997.29 points, up 0.23% from last month.
1) The scale index and efficiency index in production prosperity index dropped down, the confidence index rose up slightly. In March, due to lack of foreign orders, the scale index in production prosperity index slid down from last month, the total production value and product sales revenue dropped lower than last month. The efficiency index declined compared with last month, in which the gross profit was less than that of last month, the flow rate of the product inventory slowed down compared with that of last month. The confidence index climbed upper from last month, in which the confidence index of entrepreneur's deciding market demand, analyzing product profitability and foreseeing enterprise's outlook rose up higher than that of last month.
2) The production prosperity indices on raw materials, grey cloths and apparel fabrics dropped down in different degrees, while the production prosperity indices on home textile and fashion accessories climbed up apparently. In March, the production prosperity index on raw materials closed at 951.37 points, down 4.67% from last month; grey cloths closed at 1915.21 points, down 8.69%; apparel fabrics closed 1449.10 points, up 2.34%; home textile closed at 1590.87 points, up 26.64%; fashion accessories closed at 1468.58 points, up 15.64%.
3) Small and medium-size textile enterprises in Shaoxing received inadequate orders, but the entrepreneur's production confidence index rose up slightly. The amount of orders declines since this year, the main reason is the weakening foreign demand. Companies commonly feel that the second impact of the global financial crisis hit them heavier than the first time. The falling rate of overseas orders is beyond the expectation, the order's value shrinks apparently. Foreign buyers want quicker delivery, which make companies operate business under more pressures. As the economic situation in the major markets such as Europe and America remains the same as before, the consumption level will need much longer time to recover. Experts thinks that, the foreign trade export of Shaoxing textile companies is predicted to stay in a low position in the first half of this year. But thanks to the good effects brought by the country's measures for promoting the growth of foreign trade, companies tend to have normal operation, making the entrepreneur's production confidence rise up. The regular conference hosted by Wen Jiabao prime minister of the State Council on March. 25 indicates that from April.1, the country will raise the export rebate rate of partial textile and garments. Since the country decided to readjust the rebate rate of partial industrial product's export in the planning for reconstructing and revitalizing the industry, this is another action taken by the government to cope with the international financial crisis, promote the economic growth and ease export companies' pressures.It is reported that the rebate rate of some textile and garment export will rise from 15% to 16%. As the March export revenue is in a low position, the foreign trade export of Shaoxing textile companies is expected to rebound in April. The enterprise production prosperity index tends to go back.
2. The market circulation prosperity index of March rose up apparently,the market circulation confidence index boosted up slightly. In March, the market circulation prosperity index closed at 825.33 points, up 13.90% from last month; the market circulation confidence index closed at 1041.64 points, up 2.05% from last month.
1) In the circulation prosperity index, the scale index and the efficiency index rebounded apparently, the confidence index rose up. In March, the scale index of the circulation prosperity index rebounded apparently from last month. In it, the total market turnover and the total market transaction volume rose back than last month. The efficiency index rebounded from that of last month, in which the product gross profit went higher than last month and the cash flow rate increased compared with last month. The confidence index was higher than last month. In March, in each professional market of China Textile City, spring fabrics and accessories market had more customers and sales volumes, the innovative apparel fabrics and home textile fabrics sell smooth in partial areas. Fashion accessories companies all around the country and customers from secondary markets were active in purchasing target spring apparel fabrics, home textile fabrics and accessories; In it, market business households were more confident in analysing market demand, product profitability and business prospect than last month.
2) The market circulation prosperity indices on grey cloths, apparel fabrics and fashion accessories rose up obviously. Raw materials and home textile increased slightly. In March, the market circulation prosperity index on raw materials closed at 576.03 points, up 5.62% from last month; grey cloths closed at 894.44 points, up 22.43%; apparel fabrics closed at 1247.42 points, up 29.67%; home textile closed at 983.74 points, up 7.42%; fashion accessories closed at 1194.92 points, up 23.34%.
3) As the domestic demand warmed up, the sales volume increased more from last month. In March, owing to customers in each professional market of China Textile City increasing, part of substantial cloth companies with a shop in front and a factory behind and large-scale business operators received more spring orders. In all professional fabric markets, the transaction range gradually extended, the spring sales of China Textile City developed larger than last month. Interacting between target spring and summer apparel fabrics, the fabrics in innovative patterns dominated the market, the spot transaction and orders increasing. As the domestic demand warmed up, customers from target secondary markets all over the country and fashion accessories companies were relatively active in subscribing spot goods and placing orders. Spring and summer fabrics interact with each other, spring and summer polyester fabrics, polyester/spandex 4-way stretch, multi-chemical fiber wool-like, T/R wool-like, nylon/cotton fashion fabrics, T/C printed fabrics, cotton printed fabrics and polyester/spandex fabrics and other apparel fabrics sell well in partial areas, the turnover climbing up day after day. In spring and summer fancy fabrics, printed, jacquard, cutting motif, burn-out and embroidered fabrics start to sell well in different varieties, printed fabrics still dominate the market. The sales on the fabrics in simple styles and innovative patterns increase constantly. The new-pattern fabrics developed by large-scale fancy fabric companies dominate the market. The interaction between jet woven and knitted printed fabrics promote the whole sales volume of the market to rise higher than last month. In home textile, the sales volumes of curtain fabrics and curtain gauzes with new styles and creative patterns got more than last month.
4) Business households of China Textile City are full of confidence in the next market. From Apr. 1, our country will raise the export rebate rate of some textile and garments from 15% to 16%, making cloth companies with a shop in front and a factory behind, trading companies and market business households full of confidence in the next market. In the current poor international economic situation, those China Textile City trading companies and market business households exporting large quantities of products at lower prices will get great benefit from the rise of the export rebate rate, and this measure can ease the ailing situation of foreign trade market. The direct effect of raising the rebate rate is to let Shaoxing textile companies have the power to lower the prices so as to enhance the competitiveness when competing with India, Vietnam and other large textile export countries.
It is forecast that the prosperity index of April will tend to go higher than that of March. In April, in China Textile City, the sales in spring and summer fabrics are predicted to increase, the sales proportion of summer apparel fabrics will grow apparently, the transactions on the innovative fabrics will increase compared with last month, the turnover in each professional market of China Textile City continues to go higher than last month. As it is predicted, in April, the output of manufacturing companies will grow slightly, the sales volumes of spots goods in spring and summer market will get more than last month as well as the order receiving and sending, so the April prosperity index is expected to climb up slightly. In April, as the production of innovative fabrics grow up and market demand is activated again, the confidence index of market sellers will rise up slightly. The spring and summer innovative fabrics developed by partial manufacturing or processing companies, substantial cloth companies with a shop in front and a factory behind and large-scale business runners who rent machines dominate the market. To manufacturing companies and large cloth companies having a sales network of old customers, the fabrics in original patterns are still the hot-sale products on the market. Order sending on spring and summer fabrics is getting active gradually. Partial manufacturing companies and large salesrooms have more spot transactions on spring and summer products than last month. The increase of order sending remains to be the growth point of market sales. All small and medium-size business households also have a small increase in spot transactions.
