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Americas: Near-term look-alike coal prices largely steady, CSX sees $1 drop

Americas: Near-term look-alike coal prices largely steady, CSX sees $1 drop

Write: Jonina [2011-05-20]
Near-term NYMEX look-alike coal values Tuesday mostly held to Monday's levels, while the Eastern rail market saw a $1 drop in the front months. In look-alike, the first three quarters of 2011 traded within a 5-cent range of Platts' Monday's assessments. Also, Q2 and Q3 deals were within Monday's trading ranges.

Also, the Q2 over Q3 2011 spread rebounded from its zero discount position on Monday to a 50-cent spread on Tuesday, while the Q1 over Q2 2011 implied Platts spread Tuesday flirted with a zero discount. The energy complex, which normally supports Eastern coal pricing, was unable to sustain its own upward momentum. Tuesday saw the NYMEX January natural gas futures contract settling 9.5 cents lower at $4.393/MMBtu after four sessions of gains. Meanwhile, a strong dollar capped the NYMEX January crude contract's push above $90/barrel, and it closed 69 cents lower at $88.69/b. Q1 and Q2 2011 each traded five barges at $75/st and then the same volume at $74.75/st, implying a zero discount between the quarters though no Q1/Q2 spread trades were reported Tuesday. Q2 2011 also reportedly traded at $74.50/st.

Q1's final trade was down 5 cents from Monday's assessment of $75.80/st, while Q2 2011 was trading between 90 cents and 40 cents below Monday's assessment of $75.40/st.

Moving along the curve, Q3 2011 traded five barges each at $75.40/st and $75.50/st, in line with Monday's $75.50/st assessment and traded price.

The unsustainable zero-discount spread between Q2 over Q3 2011 did not find support on Tuesday, as it rebounded to a 50-cent discount in early trading.

In the physical Eastern rail market, one train of CSX-delivered, 12,500 Btu/lb, -1% sulfur coal traded at $68.85/st and then two trains traded at $68.75/st for January 2011, marking a $1 drop from Monday's January assessment of $69.75/st. The CSX-delivered coal also saw activity in the swaps market, with Q2 over Q4 2011 trading 10 contracts at a $1.60 discount.

There was no activity reported in the Powder River Basin market. Sources said utilities, which are the main players in the PRB 8,800 Btu/lb market, did not take up an offer for January 2011 that was made 5 cents below Monday's assessment of $13.45/st.