Bentek added that demand growth would be driven largely by China and India, with additional requirements from the recovering economies of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as emerging markets in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines.
"China and India are markets with immense demand potential that are hindered by infrastructure constraints that will only be partially be addressed by 2015," the report said, with both countries registering a combined demand of 8.1 Bcf/d by 2015.
Domestic gas production increases in India and China only posed a "small risk" to LNG imports, and Bentek added that while it expected both countries to increase domestic production of unconventional gas, this would not be enough to displace significant volumes of LNG imports.
China's commitment to increase the use of gas in its energy mix will prove the major driver behind its demand growth over the next five years. With 4 Bcf/d of new import capacity slated to come online from 2010-2015 and numerous long-term contracts slated to start deliveries, domestic gas price
hikes mandated by the country's leading economic agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, would help to support increasing LNG imports.
The start ups of the 0.7 Bcf/d Ratnagiri and 0.3 Bcf/d Kochi LNG terminals in the first quarter of 2011 and 2012 respectively would result in India's LNG import levels growing threefold to an average of 3.6 Bcf/d by 2015.
"Japan will remain the world's largest importer over 2010-2015," Bentek said, adding: "Japanese demand will remain effectively flat through 2015, given limited economic growth and shifts to nuclear and less costly fuels."
The major incumbent LNG importers of Japan, Korea and Taiwan were fairly mature markets, with only small import capacity additions over the next five years. However, these three countries would be the ones will to pay the most to secure LNG supply on the back of domestic resource scarcity, few
alternatives to LNG supply, and demand driven by a combination of economic performance, weather, and the price of crude oil relative to other energy sources.
South Korea's position as the world's second largest importer of LNG would also be challenged by China starting 2014, although the report did not say how much more LNG China would be importing than South Korea.
The economic impact of LNG imports in southeast Asia would be potentially huge for new import countries in the region, as it could afford them a more cost effective and cleaner way to access energy required for economic growth.
According to Bentek's data, the first LNG terminals to come online in southeast Asia would be Indonesia's 0.4 Bcf/d West Java facility, and Thailand's PTT-owned 0.7 Bcf/d terminal in Map Ta Phut in Q4 next year.
PTT's LNG terminal in Map Ta Phut, Rayong is 85% complete and will start commissioning in April 2011, with commercial operations to begin in July the same year, Wuttikorn Stithit, vice president of LNG supply, PTT, said to Platts September 21.
China Chemical Weekly: http://news.chemnet.com/en/detail-1411716.html
