According to figures in a mid-year strategy update, Total said it expects to see 800,000 b/d of oil equivalent of new production by 2014, a quarter of which will come from the ramp-up of fields started last year.
Total also said it expects 600,000 boe/d of new output from new upstream projects starting up between 2015-18, as the company's upstream portfolio shifts towards more unconventional oil and gas from LNG, heavy oil and shale gas projects.
In a presentation scheduled to be given to analysts by Total's CEO Christophe de Margerie in London later Wednesday, Total said it also plans to step up exploration efforts in frontier areas such as Mauritania, French Guiana and Indonesia and target deepwater exploration opportunities in Angola, Congo, and Brazil.
Although not giving new capital spending targets, Total said it plans to increase the capital it spends on upstream projects from 46% to 75% by 2015.
In Paris, Total's shares fell in line with its European oil market peers after the update and were 0.5% lower at Eur39.22 ($49.91) by 09:45 GMT.
"There is no new guidance on total capex, cost-cutting/margin expansion or dividends," Credit Suisse said in a note. "We do not see enough here to change our view that Total does not offer either differentiated growth or profitability to warrant a valuation premium."
2011 GROWTH DIP
Total's production in the second quarter of 2010 rose 8% to 2.36 million boe/d due to the startup of the second train of its Yemen LNG project and ramp-ups at four other major projects started in Nigeria, the Gulf of Mexico, Angola and Norway in 2009.
While production is expected to grow this year, Total said it sees production little changed in 2011, depending on oil prices, OPEC production quotas and the recovery of its Nigerian output.
"Flat production looks optimistic to us as there are no new major start-ups until late 2011, and we are sceptical that any residual ramp-ups from Yemen LNG or Moho Bilondo [Congo] are enough to offset natural declines," Credit Suisse said.
The bank said it currently forecasts a 3% year-on-year production decline in 2011. Total is launching five new major upstream projects in 2010; the second phase of the Surmont oil sands project in Alberta, Canada; the CLOV production hub in Angola; the Laggan/Tormore gas field offshore the UK; and the Ofon phase 2 and Egina projects in Nigeria.
But the first new project to come onstream is Total's $9 billion Pazflor development offshore Angola in late 2011.
ACQUISITIONS
Further ahead, part of Total's upstream growth strategy is to expand its LNG capacity with stakes in major export projects in Australia and Russia.
In its presentation, Total said it expects to benefit from about 200,000 boe/d of new LNG capacity on stream by 2020, with LNG making up some 18% of its total production over the 2010-20 period.
Acquisitions will continue to play a key part of the company's growth plans, with Total estimating it needs some 1.4 billion boe of new resources each year to support its annual growth target.
Since 2006, Total has added an average 0.9 billion boe/year of resources from exploration and over 1 billion boe/year from asset acquisitions, according to the presentation.
Total has made a number of acquisitions this year, including the purchase of Canadian oil sands company UTS and the imminent farm-in to Tullow Oil's Uganda production project.
The company has said it is also looking at more opportunities to acquire new assets and reserves this year.
Total reiterated its key target given in February of a 500,000 b/d reduction in refining capacity over the 2007-11 period, but gave no update on the sale progress of its Lindsey refinery and marketing network in the UK.
In the downstream and chemicals divisions, Total said it plans to improve underlying profitability, or ROACE, by 3.5% to 13% by 2015 from "self-help and projects" rather than stronger margins.
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