But around that time something would have to give, he said, as inventory levels started to return to normal.
He said either OPEC would then have to move to increase production at that point, or else prices would then rise.
Earlier Ruhl had contrasted how gas and coal prices had remained relatively low after dropping during the recession, while oil had rapidly rebounded from $34 to $70/b.
That, he said, was the result of OPEC's three successive production cuts that had taken 3 million b/d off the market. He said "discipline has held up quite well." Without the cuts the oil price might have remained, like gas and coal, relatively low, at around $30-$40/b, he said.
Ruhl also spoke about future demand expectations. He said OECD oil demand seemed to have peaked, with stagnant populations and increased efficiency in transportation.
Some commentators said the "sky is the limit" for non-OECD demand growth, Ruhl said, but while acknowledging great uncertainty, he was more cautious.
Ruhl pointed out that much non-OECD demand had been at subsidized prices in the past, and he pointed to room in non-OECD countries to move from oil demand to gas and coal in non-transport sectors. The real driver of growth would be non-OECD transport fuel demand, but there were questions there, he said, over what car fleets would emerge in developing countries.
It was "overall a reason for caution as far as developing country demand growth is concerned," Ruhl said.
GAS MORE EXCITING THAN OIL
Ruhl said that in some ways global gas markets had been more exciting than oil recently, with the increase in US shale production and a "huge excess" of LNG.
There would be pressure on long-term gas contracts, Ruhl said, and gas might take up a much larger share of the energy mix.
The greatest area of uncertainty over the energy mix for the next 20 years was the interaction of gas and coal, especially in power generation, and how big a market share they would take, Ruhl said.
Gas had climate change benefits, and if more countries had access to local shale supplies in the future, might be as acceptable on security of supply terms as local coal.
China Chemical Weekly: http://news.chemnet.com/en/detail-1403616.html
