Forecasts of lower than expected deliveries of new medium range (MR) oil product tankers, along with expected sustained demand growth in demand for oil and tankers, may offer a reprieve to shipowners this year and into 2011, according to UK shipbroker Gibson.
Annual deliveries of MR product tankers, which are in a 25,000t-55,000t size range, increased from 111 in 2005 to 169 in 2008, while time charter equivalent earnings for the vessel class held steady at around $25,000 during the same period. Deliveries of MR tankers hit a record high of 186 in 2009 at the same time that the global economic slowdown cut demand. This resulted in average round voyage MR earnings of $9,000 a day.
At the start of this year we indicated that the number of scheduled MR tankers to be delivered in 2010 stood at 192, even more than in 2009. However, it was clear that actual deliveries would never hit this high, said Gibson in a tanker market report. The undercurrent of negotiated delays between owners and shipyards meant an unknown number of 2010 deliveries would not arrive until 2011. In addition, cancellation of new orders was also a hot topic, if not quantifiable.
New MR tankers this year could now reach 140-150 vessels compared with previous estimates of 192 vessels. Deliveries of new vessels could fall to 110 if there are significant cancellations, Gibson said. The number of new MR product tankers this year current stands at 73, while 2011 deliveries are expected to be in a 100-125 range. Deliveries in 2012 are forecast at 50-75 vessels.
The gains in MR supply will be far less this year and smaller next year, the Gibson report said. If the economic bounce-back is as strong as indicated by the IMF , and the slowdown in MR fleet growth is as we forecast, then this year will be better for MR owners than last year, but still tough. With a smaller increase in the MR fleet in 2011 and sustained growth in oil and tanker demand, next year should be better still for owners.
Annual deliveries of MR product tankers, which are in a 25,000t-55,000t size range, increased from 111 in 2005 to 169 in 2008, while time charter equivalent earnings for the vessel class held steady at around $25,000 during the same period. Deliveries of MR tankers hit a record high of 186 in 2009 at the same time that the global economic slowdown cut demand. This resulted in average round voyage MR earnings of $9,000 a day.
At the start of this year we indicated that the number of scheduled MR tankers to be delivered in 2010 stood at 192, even more than in 2009. However, it was clear that actual deliveries would never hit this high, said Gibson in a tanker market report. The undercurrent of negotiated delays between owners and shipyards meant an unknown number of 2010 deliveries would not arrive until 2011. In addition, cancellation of new orders was also a hot topic, if not quantifiable.
New MR tankers this year could now reach 140-150 vessels compared with previous estimates of 192 vessels. Deliveries of new vessels could fall to 110 if there are significant cancellations, Gibson said. The number of new MR product tankers this year current stands at 73, while 2011 deliveries are expected to be in a 100-125 range. Deliveries in 2012 are forecast at 50-75 vessels.
The gains in MR supply will be far less this year and smaller next year, the Gibson report said. If the economic bounce-back is as strong as indicated by the IMF , and the slowdown in MR fleet growth is as we forecast, then this year will be better for MR owners than last year, but still tough. With a smaller increase in the MR fleet in 2011 and sustained growth in oil and tanker demand, next year should be better still for owners.
