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USA : Lighter trade conditions lower volatility

USA : Lighter trade conditions lower volatility

Write: Warley [2011-05-20]
Market was trading lower in early electronic activity but trended as much as 100 higher on the day to reach the high of 63.80. Trade scale up selling knocked the market back down below 63.50 but friendly option activity was being done on average volume as the market worked its way back to close up 70 pts on the day.
Futures traded below 10,000 contracts and options were just above as volatility continues to come down under the lighter trading conditions. Grains were mixed with slight losses and gains as the stock market finished weak again today which represented its worst week in 5 years.
There remains concerns over credit risk and mortgage company weakness that has the economy in a very conservative growth mode. Crop progress is still doing well in the Southeast and West Texas, but there are big delays with South Texas due to recent rains. There are some concerns in China with heavy rains, but India and Pakistan are doing better than expected.
Technically, the market is forming a flag pattern, but it is hard to get a good feel for where it might break on such light volume this week. It looks like it wants to wait for new information before making any big changes as we stay in a fairly tight 150 pts range.
Support is found near 62.50 in Z'07 as there is also good resistance near 64.00. With such a weak stock market this week, we will have to see if those losses start to pour over to the grain and cotton markets with large funds having tofree up cash and take profits.