USA : Slow down in business continue thru Christmas

Market traded in a fairly narrow range as we tested and made new highs early only to run into heavy trade selling and bearish options. However, the market defended the retreat near the 65.25 level and managed to make another run before settling down on the day. The specs added slightly to their long position last week to 15.7% for the first time in 5 weeks since the liquidation began at just over 30.3%.
Open interest climbed again today as we are approaching 220k and the specs have room as well to add to the record OI position over 250K. See page 2 for the charts on OI and the spec hedge position. Volume was average with 19,000 futures and 12,000 options as we grind higher into trade scale up selling.
This could become a redemption rally for freeing up some of the early cotton that is stuck in the loan. The dollar is stable to lower as most of the commodities look poised to end the year on a strong note which may include cotton as well.
We still don't see any significant demand as the cert stocks have stabilized and its likely that if sales have not been made at this point, with he market trending higher, we may see a slow down in business continue through the Christmas and New Year's shortened weeks.
However, the specs seem content to buy dips and that will continue until the trade selling becomes too much which may push H'08 as high as 67.00 in the short term.
Technically we broke the resistance at the 65.50 cent level, and closed near the high above the 9-day moving average. RSI is back close to 50% and the specs are adding back to their long position.
The demand has been steady but not overwhelming as the market looks like it cannot find enough ammunition to retest the contract highs any time soon at 70.50. We may see the market trade sideways in a 63/67 cent range as we get through the holidays and into the new year. We expect heavier scale up selling from the trade as we move higher.