In the second half of November 2009, the PBC conducted a survey on urban depositors in 50 large, medium and small-sized cities across the country. The survey findings are as follows:
1. The income sentiment index continues to rebound
In Q4, the current income sentiment index of urban residents registered 51.7%, rising a cumulative 5.8 percentage points from the lowest 45.9% recorded in Q2 2009. With regard to next quarter s income, the future income confidence index posted 57.8%, rising two quarters in a row with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1 percentage points.
2. The employment situation continues to improve
The employment sentiment index for Q4 registered 36.0%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, sustaining the continuous improvement since the beginning of the year. 11.1% of respondents thought favorably of the employment situation, up 2.0 percentage points quarter on quarter. The employment expectations index reached 52.9%, up 2.0 percentage points quarter on quarter. In particular, 16.3% of respondents expected next quarter s employment to be even better, a share 2.2 percentage points larger than a quarter earlier.
3. Price satisfaction falls consecutively
In Q4, urban residents current price satisfaction index registered 28.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, a drop for the third consecutive quarter. 46.8% of respondents considered current prices "too high to be accepted", up 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. 50.0% of respondents said that prices were "acceptable", down 1.2 percentage points quarter on quarter. The price expectations index stood at 73.4%, 6.6 percentage points higher than a quarter earlier, continuing its upward trend of the year.
4. Investment sentiment surges continuously
In Q4, when asked about their expenditure plans, 42.0% of respondents chose "more savings deposits", 42.1% picked "more investment" and 15.9% preferred "more consumption". The share of respondents with "more investment" as their choice, expanding throughout the year, was back to the Q1 2008 level, with a cumulative rise of 13.0 percentage points over the beginning of the year. Residents were most inclined to invest in property, funds and wealth management products, and shares.
5. Expectations for home price rise continue to grow
In Q4, 67.2% of respondents considered current home prices "too high to be accepted", rising two quarters in a row with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1 percentage points. 31.0% of respondents viewed current home prices as acceptable, 1.6 percentage points less than a quarter earlier. Respondents who expected home prices to go up in the next quarter accounted for 45.9%, expanding 4.7 percentage points quarter on quarter and registering a cumulative rise of 29.9 percentage points over Q1.
6. Car purchase stands out among contributing factors to consumption growth
In Q4, 38.0% of respondents reported that their consumption increased compared with the previous quarter, rising steadily for the third consecutive quarter with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7 percentage points. 39.3% of respondents expected their consumption to grow in the next quarter, up 7.9 percentage points quarter on quarter. In particular, those who had car purchase plans for the next three months accounted for a larger portion of 13.9%, the highest since the survey started in 1999, rising five quarters in a row with a cumulative gain of 4.5 percentage points.
